A Reprieve (of sorts)

(photo from USGS Kilauea Status Update page)

I spoke with Dr Jim Kauahikaua, head volcanologist at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory, last night after a Civil Defense community meeting for our neighborhood. I asked him to give me a ballpark time frame for the lava to reach our home, which I pointed out on a detailed map. Just last week it was predicted to be only days from reaching the highway, but the flow doesn't seem to be progressing forward that fast lately. He seemed pretty confident that the lava is still coming, just that it'll probably take longer than previously expected.

He said we have "months" before the lava hits our place.
I'll take it!

Even though the same amount of lava is pumping out of Pu'u O'o, it's getting dispersed differently than before. A lot of the revised prediction time frame has to do with the terrain between the current flow field and here. For on thing, it's flatter, thereby allowing the flow to spread out over a larger area. And there are no more deep earth cracks to channel the flow downslope quickly.

We were told that it's a pretty sure thing that this flow will hit the highway at some point. Pahoa itself is still assumed to be within weeks of having lava, unless the flow bypasses town, which could happen. But down here at our home--which is what I was particularly inquiring about--it is likely to be months out. Repeatedly we were warned that the highway will have lava... it's just a matter of when.

I am so relieved to hear that we suddenly have more time than we'd anticipated for preparations to be made. It feels like a heavy load has been lifted from my shoulders. We are still in the most likely path. However, it is a huge relief that not every single waking moment needs to be on high-alert for a while. That in itself is a blessing.

With this temporary reprieve, we have more time to work on the shelter on the Land and get the place habitable. And we don't have to move stuff right away. We might even have a chance to get back to that perimeter fence project up there.
I feel like I can exhale now.



PS to my local readers: There's another meeting tonight. If you want a seat, go early. These meetings tend to be standing room only well before the start time. That's a good thing as more people are becoming informed.

Time For Action

I don't really have time to be writing right now, but I hear there's not much in the mainland news about the lava flow heading to Pahoa, and us... It's huge! It's the real deal.
And we are in the path.

Mike took this where our road meets the highway, about 4 miles from home. The lava steam and smoke created the big cloud in the center, more smoke rising in the foreground beneath it.

The anxiety is overwhelming at times. This long drawn-out drama, while affording everyone time to get things done and arranged and moved, is also very taxing on everyone's nerves. They (officials, not just gossip) say Pahoa town is likely to disappear the way Kalapana did, and Kapoho before it. If not in the next couple weeks, then months... or agonizing years (like Kalapana).

Thank goodness there is work happening now, full speed ahead, opening up the old Railroad right of way and Beach Road. Huge trucks, graders, and enormous Cats roar by at all hours... and that's okay. These roads will be the lifeline to Hilo and all that implies.

Several of our friends who also live in this neighborhood in the direct path of the flow are moving their furnishings and stuff into storage; then it’s wait and see if we have to leave our homes. Others are leaving the area, or even the islands, entirely. Our ohana is breaking apart. Those who are staying in Puna District now talk in terms of "which side will you be on", meaning the division that the lava flow will make once it cuts off the highway... then Railroad... then Beach Road, between 'our side' and the Hilo side. (The l-o-n-g way 'round through Chain of Craters and into the back side of Volcanoes National Park will only be opened up after Beach Rd is over-run.)

(click to enlarge photo)

I hate that Lori and I will be on opposite sides of this instead of only 17 minutes away from each other. I cannot quite believe that we are likely going to lose our home, our piggery barn, and our farm. We've already canceled reservations for our vacation rental and issued refunds to incoming guests. We've already stopped selling animal feeds because we will be unable to get more before the predicted highway overrun time frame. We are down to one pig now and deciding about the laying flock. Less to move, more time for us to be doing what needs to be done right now.

We are counting ourselves fairly lucky in that we do have somewhere to go if it comes to it. Our new land has an old building on it that used to be a banana packing shed. I admit it won't be quite so bad once the place is gutted, deep-cleaned, painted, and fixed up for living in and storage of our furnishings, etc. Two rooms for us, two for storage, and a feed room of sorts with a washer. These preparations are in full swing. Soon we can start moving stuff, lighten our last-minute load here. It would have been high adventure at 20-something--and it was, doing stuff like this!--but at 50-something, not so much.

Yesterday, we finally got a chance to get to Hilo for supplies. It's another world, a more 'normal' world. Took a while to adjust. Best find of the day: empty boxes at Home Depot. They were stocking shelves and I was helping them clear the aisles.

I was a bit disappointed that we didn't see any glow from the lava as we drove home. I mean, if it's going to put us in such danger, we should at least get to see the beauty of it, too, right?

Lava Heading Our Way!

I fully intended to give a more detailed account of our experience with Hurricane Iselle, downgraded to Tropical Storm status as she moved ashore and wreaked her havoc on our part of the island...

BUT our focus has shifted from that now faraway storm to another natural disaster happening in our Puna district of Hawaii Island (aka the Big Island) - LAVA!

Sure, lava flows almost continuously somewhere on the island, but it's not everyday you get lava aiming right for your town, let alone your home. This is what's happening now. It's flowing just above Pahoa, and if it continues on its current path, will likely flow right close by to our house. Yikes!

This one is called the June 27th Flow because that's when it started. It's been making its way downhill ever since. Folks closer to the flow front are moving themselves and their livestock before the official evacuation order goes out. That's a good idea as it's been quite voggy and smoky as sulphur dioxide is emitted and trees burn up in the flow. The smoke plume is just above Pahoa, lurking there and looking ominous.

If the lava hits the highway--and it will if it keeps flowing--this end of lower Puna will be completely cut off from the rest of the island. There is only one road in or out from here, and no port, only one measly little boat ramp at Pohoiki. Needless to say, this is a BIG DEAL!

There is talk of opening some of the older roads that have been allowed to fall into disrepair - something that should have been done ages ago. Another option is reopening Chain of Craters Road that once connected Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and the little town of Kalapana... before lava overtook the entire area and buried that town 20 feet deep. That was back in 1986-1990, not so long ago. It would sure be a long drive to Hilo that way, but better than nothing.

Maps are being issued every few days and I bet the USGS status update site has never gotten so many hits. There are community Civil Defense meetings held in Pahoa two or three times a week, with larger and larger crowds attending to find out just what is going on and what, if anything, we can do about it. Be prepared comes to mind. Plan for the big What If.

Earth crack at Volcanoes Nat Park.

Fortunately, lava moves fairly slowly on this side of the island due to terrain and topography. It's a long gentle slope to the sea, chopped up with giant earth cracks and jumbled with hard lava from previous flows. Pu'u O'o, the source of all this lava, tends to ooze rather than explode all at once like Mount St Helens did. This gives us plenty of time to see exactly where Madame Pele will wander this time and just who she'll choose to visit. This is her island after all.

It's all part of living on the side of a volcano, and after all, it's how these Hawaii Islands were formed. We knew that coming in... in theory. Now for the real life application, the hands-on experience. Maybe... or maybe not. We're in wait and see mode.